The global semiconductor industry is changing rapidly, and with the acceleration of advanced manufacturing processes, China has already emerged as a major player.

2015 The year has flown by, and throughout this year, many stories have unfolded in the global semiconductor industry. Which of these are worth revisiting?

Major Forecast Revision

At the beginning of the year, numerous market analysis firms predicted that the semiconductor industry would grow this year by... 3%–7% However, by year-end, most have been adjusted down to flat or slightly lower.

The industry is keen to find out why—here are three key factors: weak end demand, a strong U.S. dollar, and China’s slowdown.

Fabless Decline

Market research agency IC Insights the latest forecast, 2015 On the global chip supplier ranking for the year, there will appear... 25 The second chip manufacturer in the year IDM Performance beats fabless. fabless the situation.

According to ICInsight Yu 12 Monthly data, globally this year Top10fabless Total revenue is expected to decline. 5% To 589.19 hundreds of millions of dollars, most of which were driven by Qualcomm. fabless Revenue decline 20% the impact of it, which is caused by 2014 of the year 200 hundreds of millions of dollars to this year’s 160 hundred million U.S. dollars. It should be noted that Qualcomm’s revenue consists of two components, in addition to... fabless In addition, it also accounts for its revenue. 1/3 Strong revenue from licensing fees. IC Insights It was pointed out that Qualcomm’s revenue plummeted, which on the surface appears to be due to Samsung’s decision to switch to its own... Exynos The series of processors—and the fact that these manufacturers are no longer placing orders with Qualcomm—actually reflect a broader trend: system makers such as Apple, Samsung, and Huawei are increasingly developing their own processor chips in order to enhance product differentiation.

In addition, fabless MediaTek, ranked third, is also expected to see its revenue shrink this year. 8% To 65.04 hundred million dollars.

And predict 2015 Yearly global fabless Sales will decline. 5% , for 799 hundreds of millions of dollars, compared to last year. 841 hundred million dollars.

Mergers and acquisitions are intensifying once again.

According to the research company Dealogic Statistics, 2015 Year to come 12 By mid-month, the scale of M&A deals in the semiconductor industry has already surpassed... 1，200 hundreds of millions of dollars, setting a new record high for all previous years. The transaction amount has already reached last year’s full-year total. 4 More than double.

Since 1972 For years, the market share of the world’s top ten semiconductor companies has remained relatively stable. However, this year, intense alliances among major players and near-frenzied mergers and acquisitions have disrupted that pattern. 2015 This year, the market share of the world’s top ten semiconductor companies compared to the previous... 42 The year's highest point has risen. 3% There is a view that, at this pace, by... 2020 By next year, global semiconductor companies will supposedly “all merge into one,” with everyone working for a single company. While this claim is clearly somewhat exaggerated, it’s undeniable that semiconductor mergers and acquisitions this year have been extraordinary—and they may well be just the beginning.

OEM competition is becoming even fiercer.

Overall 2015 The year ahead will be a challenging one for the foundry industry, with potentially moderate growth. The customer base for advanced-process foundry services continues to consolidate and shrink, and global foundries are facing challenges due to yield issues. 16/14nmfinfet It may take longer in terms of the manufacturing process.

With advanced process technologies, most foundry manufacturers have entered a new phase. For instance, GlobalFoundries, Samsung, and TSMC are now able to move beyond traditional planar processes. 28nm , or 20nm Transition to 16nm/14nm of the finFET process, and Intel has already begun to enter. 14nm The second generation finFET Mass production of processes. Contract manufacturers expect to... 2016 Can start by the end of the year. 10nm The trial production.

Although the industry has already adopted it finFET Process, but a planar structure using advanced process technology. CMOS The market remains quite dynamic—indeed. 28nm It remains a top choice in today’s numerous app markets. 2015 Year for a single one 28nm The node may produce 10.0B Dollar-denominated OEM sales.

One undeniable fact is that, whether it’s a chip manufacturer or its contract manufacturing partner, as long as they can get into Apple’s supply chain, they’re bound to thrive—after all, Apple guarantees huge order volumes. In the future, mergers and acquisitions will very likely begin first in the advanced-process contract manufacturing sector, while on the other hand, contract manufacturers themselves will start engaging in mergers and acquisitions as well. 200mm Production capacity.

2015 Global sales of pure contract manufacturing may grow by less than... 10% , while last year it was 421 hundred million dollars.

The pace of advanced process technology continues unabated.

Although the pace of growth in the global semiconductor industry has slowed, progress in advanced manufacturing processes has not stalled—it has, in fact, accelerated. Intel, Samsung, and TSMC have emerged as a powerful trio, and their leading position on the global stage is becoming increasingly prominent.

They are breaking through. 16nm/14nm At the same time as the manufacturing process, Intel, Samsung, and TSMC are also developing separately. 10nmfinFET Process. And we look forward to... 2016 Can start by the end of the year. 10nm The trial production.

Gartner of the Wang It is said that both Samsung and TSMC are actively moving toward... 10nm Step forward, but it seems that regarding... 10nm There are differing views between TSMC and Samsung regarding the outlook. TSMC’s perspective holds that... 10nm It won't be a long-lived node, because... 10nm With 16nm/14nm Compared to that, it only excels in speed. 25% , doesn't have a significant advantage. Therefore, TSMC believes that in the future... 7nm may be more durable. However, Samsung holds a different view, believing that with... 14nm Compared to, 10nm You will definitely be even more successful.

Intel, Samsung, and TSMC are all secretly going all out to compete in the development of advanced process technologies. Since they are all based on... finFET In terms of technology, the equipment purchased is almost identical, and their performance levels are roughly comparable—at least there’s no clear advantage for any one of them.

Applied Materials this year SemiconTaiwan It was emphasized that major technological turning points in the semiconductor industry must rely on materials innovation to be realized—particularly in the current next-generation context. EUV Lithography technology is not yet in place; it’s expected to be available by... 7 Just as nanotechnology will only come online at a later stage, achieving our goals at this stage requires innovation in materials and advancements in manufacturing processes. Performing manufacturing processes on chips is akin to “building bridges and paving roads”: After ensuring that the circuits are sufficiently stable and reliable, we must further refine them through materials engineering to deliver differentiated products and services that enable our customers to reach critical technological turning points. 3DNAND Is expected to 2018 Reach annually 100 Increase monthly production capacity to 10,000 units. 85% and as the number of layers increases from 36 The layer is increased to 48 Layer, bring 50–70% The market size is growing.

From the current progress, the semiconductor industry may be poised to enter a new era in advanced process technologies. 5 Nano.

In addition, Samsung is collaborating with STMicroelectronics on R&D. FD-SOI (Fully Depleted Type) SOI ) The process has begun mass production. 28 Nano-chip, French semiconductor company Soitec SA Provide it for. SOI Base material. In addition to STMicroelectronics, other customers have also joined the scheduling queue.

According to reports, Samsung 2015 The company has begun developing operations for multiple wafer fabrication production lines. FDSOI Plan, and will 2016 A physically available design toolkit launched this year ( PDK ) and as required by the user IP Ecosystem.

The memory performance is mediocre.

Memory is a leading indicator of industry trends. Therefore, 2015 The global memory industry performed modestly this year, according to... TrendForce The forecast suggests that total memory revenue this year may only increase. 1.8% 。

According to ICInsight Predictive data, 2015 Total global revenue of the memory industry annually 834 hundreds of millions of dollars, of which Dynamic Random Access Memory Occupies 63% , for 525.4 hundreds of millions of dollars, Flash Occupies 35% , for 292 hundreds of millions of dollars, of which NAND Flash memory accounts for 32% , for 267 hundreds of millions of dollars and NOR Flash memory accounts for 3% , for 25 hundred million dollars.

2015 It was affected by weak demand and a persistent oversupply. Dynamic Random Access Memory Prices have shown a significant decline, particularly for standard-memory products. TrendForce Storage Solutions Division of the Group DRAMeXchange The survey shows that, under an oligopolistic market structure, despite a slight oversupply and continued price declines, suppliers remain disciplined in their production and have not significantly added new capacity, thus sustaining the current situation. 2013 Year and 2014 Annual trend, this year Dynamic Random Access Memory All factories continue to maintain full profitability.

China’s semiconductor industry is steadily rising in prominence.

In recent years, thanks to the efforts and progress made by China’s semiconductor industry, its transformation has attracted widespread attention from the global industry. For example... WSTS Data on China’s semiconductor industry has now been separately listed, starting from the Asia-Pacific region. It is also noted that one of the three factors contributing to this year’s global semiconductor market downturn is China’s economic slowdown.

In addition, global top-tier manufacturers such as Samsung, Intel, and TSMC have already established or are building new facilities in China that utilize the most advanced manufacturing processes. 12 Inch-level production lines, thus placing the Chinese semiconductor industry in an even more competitive environment.

Recently, Tsinghua Unigroup’s aggressive and consecutive investments in three packaging and testing plants in Taiwan have sparked a huge response on the island.

China ranks first globally in sensors, analog components, and discrete devices; based on shipment volumes, these sectors account for a significant share of global consumption. 50% ， 41% and 40% 。

And with the global IC the average selling price ASP Compared to, China's ICASP Low 16% 。

In addition, in recent years, globally... ICT The center of industry is rapidly shifting toward Asia, with China’s growth being particularly remarkable. For example... 2000 At that time, China’s share of global exports of electronic components was merely... 2.1% , to 2013 The year is here. 19.8% Its share has already surpassed that of Taiwan.

Over the past decade, the global share of the electronic components export market has undergone significant changes. 2000 No. 1 in Japan, accounting for 14.2% It is now the largest in China.

China’s semiconductor industry is undergoing a major transformation, and the launch of the Big Fund last year marked an important milestone. On the surface, the Big Fund appears to have addressed the financing challenges faced by enterprises; in reality, its deeper purpose lies in facilitating China’s semiconductor industry’s rapid transition toward market-oriented mechanisms. By providing enterprises with access to capital, the fund aims to enhance their competitive strength. Only when enterprises’ competitiveness improves and their profitability rises will they be able to make the necessary transition to market-oriented mechanisms. Thus, the Big Fund can be seen as a bridge in the industry’s development—a bridge whose ultimate goal is to accelerate the industry’s shift toward market-oriented mechanisms by bolstering the competitive strength of its enterprises.

China’s slowing economic growth has already impacted the entire semiconductor industry. If, in the next phase, as China’s semiconductor industry strengthens its position and adopts a strategy of lowering prices, this could have an even greater impact on the global semiconductor industry.